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Forecast Accuracy

How well is this team doing at work forecasting?


Forecast Accuracy in the context of Scrum, one of the agile frameworks delivering twice the work in half the time.

Historically, this chart would be named Commitment Reliability, but this naming sent a wrong message to anyone outside the team.

The formula is Accepted Story Points divided by Forecasted Story Points.

The term “committed” can be used inside the team as it encourages the determination to finish the planned list of User Stories for any given Sprint.

In time, as the team is maturing, there should be no red bars. If green is not prevailing after three months, then team members must address their ability to forecast by inspecting the mechanics of the planning session.


Improve the mechanics of planning sessions. If you feel the team is struggling to meet the Acceptance Criteria for Product Backlog Items on the Sprint Backlog, try to improve the trend to achieve better predictability.

Trend chart

Metric Trend Chart

In the OKR goal-setting methodology, metrics are preferably used as part of a Key Result.

There are hundreds of metrics in the Agile Tools ever-growing library.

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